Market-implied expectations · research terminal

V1.0 / The analyst’s terminal

Reverse-engineer
the market’s
expectations —
then disagree.

Mosaic Labs is an equity research workspace. AI agents pull the filings, build a driver-tree DCF, invert the price, run 10,000 Monte Carlo paths, and draft the research note — while you read, think, and argue.

● Mosaic ▸ new sessionAgents · 5 · Paths · 10,000 · Expectations
▸ What growth is the market pricing into NVDA?↵ enter

Engine-driven DCF · MIFP · Monte Carlo · every number traced to source

▸ Live workbench · sample: NVDA Connected
OverviewExpectationsScenariosThesis
NVDANASDAQ$910.42−18.5% intrinsic gap
Mosaic verdict · expectations rich
Market pricing 28.4% rev CAGR — your base case: 22.1%.
Implied CAGR
28.4%+6.3pp
Your CAGR
22.1%base
Implied margin
56.0%+2.8
Intrinsic px
$742−18.5%

§ 01 · The method

History, then expectations, then cases.
The thesis is the gap.

Built the way an analyst builds one in Excel — except the first forecast you see is the market’s, not somebody’s hunch.

01 · Base
History first
Reconstruct three reported years, decomposed by segment, from revenue build-up all the way to free cash flow.
02 · Market
The market's forecast
Rebuild the forecast the market is pricing today — settled only when implied value reaches market cap.
03 · Horizon
MIFP falls out
The market-implied forecast period is an output, not a guess — the horizon every case is judged against.
04 · Thesis
The gap
Your base, upside and downside cases against the market’s. The thesis lives in the difference.

§ 02 · Inside a model

A spreadsheet-grade model, recalculated live.

Tweak an assumption and watch the implied expectations move. Every cell traces to a filing, a market-data field, or a stated judgement.

AAPL — expectations.model Recalc · live
Market cap
$3.21T
Implied value
$3.19T
MIFP
14yrs
Implied price
$208−1.4%
Revenue build-up — FY+5 ($B)
SegmentRevenueMix
iPhone268.452%
Services145.128%
Wearables42.38%
Mac35.07%
iPad29.66%
Total revenue520.4100%
Equity bridge → implied price
Enterprise value$3,128B
+ Net cash & investments$62B
= Equity value$3,190B
÷ 15.34B shares$208 / share

§ 03 · Why it exists

The old workflow is ten tools. Mosaic is one workspace.

Before

The scattered desk

A terminal, Excel, and ten browser tabs
Filings read by hand, 10-K by 10-K
A DCF that breaks when you touch it
Scenarios in one tool, notes in another
No audit trail when someone asks "why?"
After

One surface

One workspace: chat, model, scenarios, thesis
Filings pulled and parsed by agents
A driver-tree DCF that recalculates live
10,000-path Monte Carlo, one click
Every number traced to its source

§ 04 · Capabilities

An equity research desk, in software.

The deterministic engine does the math; you bring the judgement. No black boxes, no invented numbers.

Reverse-DCF expectations

Reconstruct what's priced in, then solve the growth path that makes intrinsic value equal market cap.

Reverse-DCF

Segmental models

Decompose revenue by segment with price × volume drivers, carried from history into every forecast.

Bottom-up

MIFP & terminal value

A market-implied forecast period — never an arbitrary 5 or 10 years — sanity-checked against peers.

Horizon

Monte Carlo risk space

Map the distribution around your base case: P10–P90 valuation bands and probability above price.

Scenarios

Live recalc workspace

Chat with an AI analyst, edit an assumption, and watch the implied expectations move instantly.

Workspace

Audit-grade provenance

Every assumption traces to a market-data field, a filing section, or a judgement you can defend.

Auditable

§ 05 · Published models

Every model, published and auditable.

A living league table of market-implied expectations, ranked by the gap between price and value. Illustrative below — sign in for live models.

CompanyImplied CAGRMIFPImplied / priceGap
NVDANVIDIA28.4%11 yrs$742 / $910−18%
AAPLApple8.4%14 yrs$208 / $211−1%
MSFTMicrosoft11.2%13 yrs$441 / $428+3%
GOOGLAlphabet9.7%12 yrs$182 / $176+3%
AMZNAmazon13.1%15 yrs$201 / $214−6%
Browse all models

§ Begin

Every stock is a forecast. Your edge is knowing where you disagree.

Build your first market-implied model in minutes. Free for your first five tickers.